The Times reports unabridged version of security services' analysis sets out 'reasonable worst case scenario' where climate impacts trigger mass migration and conflict
An official government report this week warning that "global ecosystem degradation and collapse threatens UK national security and prosperity" was abridged to remove references to some of the potentially catastrophic climate-related risks facing the country, including the prospect of food system collapse and even nuclear war.
That is according to reports in The Times this morning, which claim the paper has seen a unabridged version of the report that sketches out a "reasonable worst case scenario" where ecosystem loss and climate impacts have a potentially devastating effect on food security, levels of mass migration, and security risks both globally and in the UK.
The controversial report - titled Global Biodiversity Loss, Ecosystem Collapse and National Security - was developed with input from the joint intelligence committee, which oversees MI5 and MI6.
It was originally due to be published last autumn but was reportedly blocked by Number 10 amidst concerns it was too negative. Reports at the time suggested Number 10 insiders had taken issue with warnings of how tropical deforestation could lead to higher food costs in the UK.
Defra subsequently published the report this week following a freedom of information request from think tank Green Alliance, with the official version acknowledging the UK faces significant security risks related to worsening biodiversity loss and climate impacts.
"The world is already experiencing impacts including crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks," the 14-page report stated. "Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse. Without major intervention to reverse the current trend, this is highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond."
"Critical ecosystems that support major global food production areas and impact global climate, water and weather cycles are the most important for UK national security," it added. "Severe degradation or collapse of these would highly likely result in water insecurity, severely reduced crop yields, a global reduction in arable land, fisheries collapse, changes to global weather patterns, release of trapped carbon exacerbating climate change, novel zoonotic diseases and loss of pharmaceutical resources."
It concluded that "all countries are exposed to the risks of ecosystem collapse within and beyond their borders... and are likely to act to secure their interests, particularly water and food security".
However, The Times reported that an earlier version of the analysis contained even starker warnings detailing how deforestation in the Congo and the loss of glaciers in the Himalayas could drive increases in the number of people migrating to Europe, leading to "more polarised and populist politics in the UK" and putting "additional pressure on already strained national infrastructure".
It also warned there was a "realistic possibility" that climate impacts could drive "global competition for food" by the 2030s and highlighted how reduced water flow from Himalayan rivers would "almost certainly escalate tensions" between China, India, and Pakistan, all of which are nuclear powers.
Other "reasonable worst case scenarios" assessed by the report included a surge in eco-terrorism, NATO being drawn into conflicts over those areas still capable of reliable food production, and the triggering of climatic tipping points that could result in runaway warming.
It also highlighted how Britain imports 40 per cent of its food, including a fifth of its animal feed from South America, which would leave it vulnerable to food supply shocks.
"This government is hiding the true danger of climate change from the people," a source close to the development of the report told The Times. "We need to have an honest conversation about the risks we face to our prosperity and how to mitigate them."
The government was approached for comment on the leaked version of the report.
Speaking earlier in the week about the published version of the report, a government spokesperson said: "Nature underpins our security, prosperity, and resilience and understanding the threats we face from biodiversity loss is crucial to meeting them head on. The findings of this report will inform the action we take to prepare for the future.
"The UK has a resilient food system and remains one of the most food-secure nations in the world, producing around 65 per cent of all the food we eat. We have access through international trade to food products that cannot be produced here, which supplements domestic production and ensures that any disruption from risks such as adverse weather or disease do not affect the UK's overall security of supply."
Writing on social media platform Bluesky, former Green Party leader Caroline Lucas accused the government of supressing the original version of the report.
"Sadly suppressing such a devastating report doesn't make the risks go away - it just makes them even harder to deal with," she said. "Facing up to the truth is the first step to coping with it - it's beyond scandalous that ministers tried to prevent this. They need to act - and fast."
