New analysis from ECIU warns of a 12 per cent increase in toxic nitrogen oxide emissions across the UK this winter if lockdown persists
Air pollution could soar this winter as gas boilers are cranked up at homes across the country by the UK's expanded army of home workers, the Energy and Climate Change Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has today warned.
In a report published this morning, the think tank predicts emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) could spike by approximately 12 per cent in the UK's towns and cities if, as expected, lockdown measures persist and domestic boiler use rises as a result.
The ECIU's modelling predicts that with gas boiler use predicted to grow by 56 per cent this winter, emissions of nitrogen oxide will "more than offset" two years of progress in reducing NOX emissions from traffic.
"It's commonly known that nitrogen oxide pollution from road traffic harms health, and especially lung health," explained Dr Anna Moore, respiratory registrar and spokesperson for the UK Health Alliance on Climate Change. "There's less awareness however of alternative sources of these harmful pollutants from within our homes. Domestic gas boilers contribute significantly to total NOx emissions."
Moore said that the projected rise in exposure to air pollution as people avoid offices over the colder months was "concerning". "While it is important for our health to have warm homes over the winter, the projected rise in exposure to air pollution as more people are working from home is concerning," she added.
NOX pollution carries significant health burdens, with elevated levels of the pollutant increasing people's vulnerability to a number of serious health conditions, including diabetes, asthma, lung disease, and cancer. Some studies have also suggested that air pollution could exacerbate health impacts from Covid-19.
These health costs carry major economic burdens, the ECIU stressed today, predicting that pollution from increased use of the UK's 21,000 gas boilers this winter could incur roughly £190m in damages, once loss of life and productivity is factored in.
On the other hand, the analysts estimate that £1.6bn in damages and 17,000 lives could be saved annually in Bristol, London, Manchester, and Birmingham if the cities worked to meet guidelines on all major air pollutants, which also include particulate matter and ozone.
The government's landmark Heat and Buildings Decarbonisation Strategy, which Ministers have promised to publish before the close of the year, is expected to set out how the government intends to transition to cleaner domestic heating systems over the coming decades.
Jess Ralston, analyst at the ECIU, called on the government to use its forthcoming policy document to set out how it plans to curb carbon emissions and air pollution associated with domestic gas boilers, pointing to findings from the recent UK Climate Assembly that revealed broad public support for a phase out of traditional boilers. "Opting for a clean alternative [to gas heating] will help curb CO2 emissions but also the dangerous levels of NOX highlighted in this report," she said.
Ralston stressed that the UK's climate targets depended on homes being transitioned away from fossil fuel heating systems to green alternatives, such as clean energy-powered electric heat pumps. "The way we heat our homes needs to change if we are to get to net zero emissions by 2050," she said. "Fossil fuel heating currently accounts for around 15 per cent of the UK's greenhouse emissions and 21 million properties still have gas boilers, so there's some way to go."
The ECIU's analysis comes the same week as a major study from the European Public Health Alliance suggested that overall, the health costs associated from air pollution in London have hit nearly €1,300 per person per year.
