Check-list from think tank E3G categorises key issues that will contribute to the success or failure of the Paris agreement
Will the Paris climate change summit starting next week result in a "zombie" deal or inject some "va va voom" into efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions?
That is the question posed by a new check-list from environmental think tank E3G yesterday, which sets out a way to measure the strength of the international climate change agreement expected to be signed at the UN Paris climate summit next month.
In an effort to put the conference in the context of broader climate change objectives, E3G analysts mapped out three potential scenarios for the outcome of the talks.
In the first scenario, dubbed "Le Zombie", details would only be agreed at the negotiator level rather than by ministers or leaders. The deal is limited to countries that have already stated their national plans, known as intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), leading to a lack of precision and significant risk of the deal collapsing.
In the next, more upbeat, scenario, ministerial progress is translated into negotiating positions thanks to effective French diplomacy. A deal with guarantees on financial and adaptation support is agreed, but developed country leaders dominate the talks with developing nations taking a back seat.
The final, most positive scenario – which E3G calls "Va Va Voom" – sees all major components of the deal outlined with sufficient clarity and guidance to keep the world on track to 2C and provide momentum to drive climate change action into the mainstream.
"We need an ambitious but honest agreement," said Liz Gallagher, climate diplomacy programme leader for E3G, who compiled the scenarios. "Paris won't be the ultimate conclusion but must accelerate climate action to keep us within a stable climate.
"What matters at COP21 is not just the details in the text, but what happens after; how governments, companies and cities transform their futures."
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