Met Office paints bleak climate picture for Europe

Climate change has the potential to devastate large areas of Europe over the next 90 years, resulting in falling food production, increased risks of heat stress and forest fires, and higher insurance premiums, according to a major new EU-backed study from the Met Office.

Released today at a symposium hosted at the Met Office's headquarters in Exeter, the findings from the five-year study warn that Europe is currently on track to experience a rise in average temperatures of 4C by the end of the century. It argues that global CO2 emissions will have to be cut to almost zero by the end of the century if there is to be a reasonable chance of limiting temperature increases to the two-degree level deemed "safe" by scientists and policymakers.

The study, which was undertaken as part of the EU's Ensembles project, is the most comprehensive assessment to date of the impact of global warming on Europe, drawing on work from 66 scientific institutions and for the first time combining a number of complex climate models on supercomputers to predict the most likely climate outcomes.

Its findings provide an overview of how climate change will impact Europe's capital cities, and back up a raft of recent studies that warn warming is happening faster than has been previously anticipated and will have more devastating consequences.

"This latest research emphasises the necessity to make drastic cuts in emissions as quickly and as soon as possible if we are to avoid dangerous climate change," observed John Mitchell, director of climate science at the Met Office and Ensembles co-ordinator, adding that it also "highlights the importance of the negotiations that will take place in Copenhagen in December".

As well as projecting overall shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns across the continent, the study also looks at a number of sectors including agriculture, health, energy, water resources and insurance.

It warns, for example, that insurance premiums will rise in northern Europe to cope with a 15 per cent increase in storm loss potential during the second half of the century.

It also predicts that crop yields will fall in southern Europe from 2050 as a result of increased droughts and heatwaves, and rejects suggestions yields will climb significantly in northern Europe as a result of warming, suggesting that any improvements would be offset by increased damage to forestry and livestock as a result of the greater risk of pests and plant diseases.

Human health would similarly suffer with the report predicting the increased prevalence of tropical diseases and heatwaves will result in increased mortality.

Dan Norris, minister for Rural Affairs and Environment, said that the study served as a reminder to governments that "not only do we need to tackle the causes of climate change, but also that we must deal with the consequences".

The study comes just weeks after a report from the Met Office and the Association of British Insurers warned that an increase in average global temperatures of four degrees would see annual insured losses in the UK from flooding rise 14 per cent to £633m. It also predicted that annual wind storm losses could rise by 25 per cent to £827m.

Nick Starling, director of general insurance and health at the ABI, warned that without greater investment in climate adaptation measures, many properties could become uninsurable.

"These findings have serious implications for insurers, householders, businesses and governments," he said. "The continued widespread availability of property insurance in the future depends on taking action now to manage the threats of climate change."