Turner: We must aim to "over achieve" on carbon budget

The chair of the independent Committee on Climate Change (CCC) , Lord Turner, has reiterated his call for the government to ignore the impact of recession on the UK's carbon emissions and aim to exceed the carbon budget for the five years up to 2013.

Speaking to the cross party Environmental Audit Committee (EAC) of MPs, Turner said that the recession would mean that carbon emissions will be significantly lower for 2008 and 2009 than originally anticipated, making it far easier for the government to meet its target of emitting no more than 3,018 mega tonnes of carbon during the first five year budget period.

However, he warned that if the government uses the recession-related savings to help meet the target it could delay long-term investments in low carbon technologies and would then find it significantly harder to meet later budgets as it aims to cut emissions by 34 per cent on 1990 levels by 2020.

Turner stopped short of calling for a re-writing of the budget to take account of the recession, but advised that the government publicly aim to exceed its short-term carbon target and should not roll over any "over achievement" into the next budget period.

Following Turner's witness session, energy and climate change secretary Ed Miliband told the EAC that the government was "on course for over achievement" in the first budget period and would respond formally on the proposal to block "banking" of emission savings into the next budget period in January.

Turner also admitted that even if the CCC's recommendations for a cut in UK emissions of 80 per cent by 2050 are adhered to, climate models suggest that there will only be a 50 per cent chance of limiting temperature rises to less than two degrees.

He explained there was a "disconnect" between the reality of climate scientists' predictions based on probability and political and public understanding of how the two degree target can be met. He argued that to ensure there is only a one or two per cent chance of temperature rises of two degrees there would need to be rapid cuts in emissions on a scale that would be "very difficult to achieve".

He also said that the committee's recommendations were tailored to ensure that there is only a one or two per cent chance of "catastrophic" temperature rises of over four degrees and that carbon targets may have to be strengthened if new science suggests the probability of higher temperature increases is rising.

His comments were echoed by Miliband, who admitted that the "politics is struggling to keep up with the science" and that the chances of hitting the two degree target were already "extremely challenging".

The EAC's witness session comes on the same day as a new report from analyst firm Cambridge Econometrics warned that the UK will cut emissions by just 0.75 per cent a year over the next decade and as a result will miss its 2020 targets and exceed its third carbon budget.

The report also warned that based on current trajectories the UK will miss its EU target to generate 15 per cent of its power from renewable energy.

However, Turner said that while a "step change" in the pace of the government's low carbon transition plan was still required, he insisted that meeting the 2020 targets are "completely achievable".

He recommended that a number of changes would be required to government policies to ensure targets are met, including an overhaul of energy efficiency programmes to move from an energy company-led approach to a government-led approach and reforms to the European emissions trading scheme to ensure that a floor price is put on carbon emission allowances.

Miliband said that the government would respond formally to the CCC's recommendations in the New Year, but he echoed Turner's view that a step change in the pace of the low carbon transition could be delivered and would ensure that 2020 targets are met.