Kerry seeks to downplay expectations ahead of Poznan

The head of the US Senate's delegation at next week's UN climate change summit, former presidential candidate John Kerry, has sought to dampen expectations of an immediate breakthrough following the Barack Obama's election victory, warning the global economic downturn may force countries to scale back climate change initiatives.

Speaking in a conference call with reporters earlier this week, the Senator warned the extent to which developed nations can help fund carbon reduction and climate change adaptation measures in emerging economies was likely to be less than it was before the financial crisis struck.

"We have to figure out what is achievable ... within one year, given our economic realities," Kerry said. "The bottom line is we are not going to be in the position we were two years ago in the short term to do as much technology transfer or economic assistance in terms of transitional issues that might have led other countries to participate."

The comments are likely to disappoint developing nations such as China and India who have insisted they will only sign up to binding emission targets if the US does likewise and the developed nations that are responsible for the bulk of historic emissions provide financial support to help them develop low carbon economies.

Kerry also warned high profile breakthroughs were unlikely next week. "This is not a negotiation session," he said. "This is a negotiation to set up a glide path going into Copenhagen."

However, he echoed president-elect Obama's declaration last week that the US would now take up a leadership role in the fight against climate change, insisting that a sea change in the country's approach to the UN negotiations was underway.

"It's a very exciting time. It's a moment we have been waiting for, many of us, for some period of time; we intend to pick up the baton and really run with it," he said, adding that Obama has been "very, very clear that after eight years of obstruction and delay and denial, the US is going to rejoin the world community in tackling this global challenge".

He said the US message at next week's talks will be "that America is back, we are back in a position of participation, of respecting views and having real discussions and trying to find the best framework for all of us".

However, the extent to which that change will be visible next week remains to be seen.

Kerry said he will be reporting back to president-elect Obama on the conference and effectively forms part of a shadow negotiating team for the incoming president alongside Minnesota senator and Obama supporter Amy Klobuchar.

But no one from Obama's transition team will be attending the conference and Obama has insisted that he is not seeking to undermine president Bush's authority at the talks.

Meanwhile, Bush, who has been busily rolling back US environmental regulations during his last few days in office, is to send the same negotiating team that has been widely criticised throughout the UN negotiations and was openly heckled at last year's talks in Bali.

However, Andreas Arvanitakis, senior analyst at research firm Point Carbon, insisted there was still optimism that Obama's election victory could result in a detente between the umbrella group of nations - the US, Canada, Japan and Australia - and developing nations such as China and India, who have been at loggerheads over the extent to which emerging economies should sign up to binding emission targets.

"Obama will be present in Poznań with a shadow delegation," he said. " Everyone knows he has the ability to unlock the deadlock in the talks."

He also said that the UN's carbon offsetting programme, the clean development mechanism (CDM), could see a major boost as a result of the talks. "We expect that the long list of possible changes to the CDM will be narrowed down to a short list, and sectoral crediting, whereby a sector is credited for performance rather than an individual project, could feature on the list," he explained. " Were this to transpire then it could mean a ramping up of the CDM."