Carbon market to clear $100bn by the end of the year

The world's financial markets may be rising and falling on an almost daily basis, but the global carbon market is still on a rapid upward trajectory, according to the latest research from New Carbon Finance.

The analyst claimed that the market grew 81 per cent over the first nine months of 2008 to $87bn, and despite the financial turmoil of recent weeks, was on track to clear the $100bn mark by the end of the year, reaching a market value of $116bn.

The new research claims that the growth has been driven by an expansion in both the number of trades being processed and an increase in the price of carbon.

It estimates that the total volume of emissions traded will increase 31 per cent on 2007 levels to 3.9Gt this year, while average prices for both European Union EUA credits and UN-approved CERs have also risen.

The report also says the market remains relatively well insulated against the turbulence affecting other financial markets, noting that since the start of the year nine new carbon funds have been created, raising a total of $560m.

"There will be some impact from the downturn as new carbon reduction projects may find it harder to access credit and any slowdown in Europe would reduce demand for EUAs," said report author Douglas Higgins. "But ultimately this is a market driven by regulation and that regulation is still in place."

New Carbon Finance is therefore predicting that the rapid rate of growth experienced this year will continue, estimating that the market should reach $550bn by 2012 and $2trn by 2020.

Should presidential candidates Barack Obama or John McCain make good on pre-election promises to launch a carbon cap-and-trade scheme in the US, the analyst firm predicts the market will be larger still – worth $680bn in 2012 and more than $3trn by 2020.