Climate change: the future is in our hands but we must adapt

Next week will mark the second anniversary of the 2007 summer floods that caused havoc across England and Wales. The flooding, which displaced hundreds of people from their homes and flooded around 7,100 businesses as well as cut off roads and disrupted key infrastructure such as water supplies and a major electricity sub-station, acted as a reminder of how vulnerable we still are to the vagaries of the weather. The economic impact was also severe: at least £3 billion worth of damage was caused.

While not attributed to global warming, the events were an example of the types of extreme rainfall which could become more common in future as a result of climate change. The heat wave across Europe in summer 2003, which is thought to have resulted in more than 30,000 deaths, is another taste of things to come. By the middle of this century, it could look like a normal summer and by the end of this century a cool summer.

There is no doubt that the climate is changing. Eleven of the twelve hottest years globally on record were in the last twelve years. Average global temperatures are already approaching one degree Celsius higher than in the pre-industrial age. The cause is almost certainly carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, mainly from the use of coal, oil, gas and deforestation. Further climate change is in store due to the greenhouse gases already and continuing to build up in the atmosphere.

New projections published yesterday show how the UK's climate could change over the course of this century. The projections are more sophisticated than previous versions, showing ranges of possible futures to a finer level of geographical detail. The overall trends are clear. Britain can expect: warmer, wetter winters; hotter, drier summers; rising sea levels; and more extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, storms and heat waves.

There are two clear messages to take from this. The first is that the future is in our hands. We can still avoid the most extreme scenarios if we cut greenhouse gas emissions to limit climate change. The new projections strengthen the need to cut the UK's emissions and reinforces the case for an effective global agreement at the UN climate summit in Copenhagen at the end of this year.

While the new projections are UK focused we should not forget the bigger picture. A recent report by the Global Humanitarian Forum estimates that climate change is already responsible for more than 300,000 deaths worldwide each year, mainly due to hunger and disease caused by environmental degradation, and the death toll is set to rise. We simply should not allow this to continue unchecked.

The second message from the new projections is that we must adapt. Some further climate change is inevitable even if we are successful in cutting future greenhouse gas emissions. We do not know exactly how much the climate will change because the future is not fixed and the science is not certain. But we know enough to act. These new projections, which are more sophisticated than ever, will enable us and others to prudently plan for a range of possible futures. Adaptation must start today however to ensure public and private investment is resilient.

In the wake of the summer 2007 floods, the Environment Agency pushed Government to strengthen the Climate Change Bill to take more account of the urgent need to adapt our society and infrastructure for future climate impacts. As a result, the Climate Change Act provides a robust legislative framework, requiring a national risk assessment and the preparation of a national adaptation plan. The new climate projections provide vital evidence to inform this work.

The Environment Agency will make good use of them. We have already been factoring climate change into our work on flooding, coastal management and water resources. For example, our Thames Estuary 2100 project is developing plans to manage flood risk for London and the Thames Estuary to the end of the century. The iconic Thames Barrier currently protects businesses and assets worth approximately £200 billion. The plans are flexible to cope with different amounts of climate change and sea level rise. Around the middle of the century a decision will be needed whether to continue to upgrade and modify existing flood defences or to construct a new barrier.

The new climate projections will hopefully provide a renewed push to other organisations to prepare for climate change, particularly those providing public services and critical infrastructure, including roads and railways, power stations and water treatment works. The Climate Change Act also enables the Government to require such organisations to carry out climate risk assessments and take adaptation actions. It needs to use this power, and we will work with them and others to share how the Environment Agency is already adapting our business to climate change.

The Environment Agency is at the front line of dealing with the future impacts of climate change – flooding, water scarcity and sea level rise – as well as leading the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Acting to reduce climate change and its consequences is our number one priority. But climate change will affect us all and is a shared responsibility – Government, public sector and business alike – and so the new UK climate projections are a call to arms.

Tony Grayling is Head of Climate Change and Sustainable Development at the Environment Agency