The inevitable "what would a hung parliament mean for the low-carbon economy" column

With apologies to David Roberts over at the Grist blog who last month wrote a story with the wonderfully jaded headline "The inevitable 'What Does Healthcare Reform Mean for Climate Legislation' post", it is time to ask what a hung parliament would mean for the UK's burgeoning green businesses.

Given this has been the most open election in decades and there are still two weeks to go until polling day, it remains a big if – but if the latest polls are right then the election on 6 May looks highly unlikely to hand any party a decisive victory.

Already, this prospect is leading to all manner of fevered hypothesising, with some commentators warning a hung parliament would lead to economic meltdown and unrest on the streets. Others reckon it would usher in a "progressive coalition" that would change the political landscape forever and deliver the centre-left government which, according to some polls, voters actually want.

But what would a hung parliament mean for the low-carbon economy, the performance of which will in many ways determine the economic health of the country over the next few decades?

As with all the other "what if" articles you have probably read over the past few days, it is impossible to answer the question with any confidence.

If the UK adopts its traditional approach to hung parliaments – ie internecine political warfare, shady backroom deals, and a return to the polls within 12 months – then a hung parliament would damage the low-carbon economy just as much as it would harm the wider economy. Investment uncertainty would stalk green infrastructure projects, while many of the innovative environmental policies proposed by each of the main parties would struggle to get off the drawing board, as politicians turned their attention to the far more important matter of back-biting and rumour-mongering.

However, if the UK could find a way to break the habit of the last few generations and deliver a grown-up European-style coalition government, be it Lib-Lab or Lib-Con, then it might just provide a huge boost to the low-carbon economy.

In a hung parliament, the green agenda would provide one of the few areas where a coalition government of any stripe could find a large amount of common ground. They would be free to argue all they want about spending cuts, tax policy and constitutional reform, but with each of the three main parties' manifestos promising the launch of a number of green initiatives, there would be no excuse for not delivering rapid progress.

These initiatives include a green infrastructure bank, a green home loan scheme, a ban on unabated coal-fired power stations, a new high-speed rail network, the roll out of smart grid technologies, improvements to recycling schemes, and increased support for community-scale renewable energy projects.