19 Feb 2009
Over the last 10 months we have witnessed the meltdown of the modern financial system, which has led to a global recession. Understandably, the policy and media focus has switched swiftly to all matters economic, but it was a discussion at the inaugural event of Intellect's High-Tech Low Carbon Week which reminded me there is more than one global crisis to be dealt with. And we don't have time to lose on climate change. If we take our eye off climate change during the recession, it will be a pretty grim world come the recovery.
The debate asked, "Is technology pulling its weight in the fight against climate change?" The answer became clear when Kevin Anderson, director at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, warned that the world was poorly positioned to stave off four degrees of warming, never mind the stated target of two degrees, and that there was still a lot to do for everyone, not just the ICT industry.
The debate has progressed since the ICT industry hit the headlines when Gartner reported the sector was responsible for two per cent of global carbon emissions. It's clear that as modern society becomes increasingly digitised, and the world's developing nations continue to grow, global ICT emissions may increase. There is no doubt the industry must do all it can to reduce its carbon footprint. But technology must also go further and serve as the tool to reduce the emissions of other sectors.
The industry has been working hard to put its own house in order. The vast majority of ICT equipment has been steadily increasing its efficiency and reducing energy consumption. From printers to computers, to mobile phones to datacentres, ICT equipment has been getting greener.
For instance, TV standby has been reduced by more than 90 per cent over the last 10 years. In the 1990s, TVs would use around 15W in standby. Today the average standby of the top 10 selling TVs in the UK is under 1W, and the best in class is under 0.3W. And as far as silicon chips go, chip efficiency, or the power needed to process a given amount of data, has improved a millionfold in the last 30 years, while continuing technological developments mean this trend looks set to continue. Moore's Law applies to more than just size.
Most of these improvements have been made through investment in innovation and R&D, not through regulatory intervention. So we might be compared to the airline industry in terms of emissions, but there is little chance that the fuel efficiency of aeroplanes is going to improve by an order of magnitude in the next 10 years. Instead, efficiency improvements are likely to be incremental – and ironically many of those will be down to the intelligent application of ICT.
Of course, some of the improvements are negated by the increasing proliferation and use of ICT equipment and changes in behaviour – the idea that modern PCs use less power but now are left on all night downloading videos by the user. But the industry is making great strides in reducing the emissions of its own equipment and will continue to do so. The real winner in the fight against climate change comes when you look at the ability of ICT to reduce other high-polluting sectors' emissions and the way in which ICT can transform the way we live our lives.
Our technologies are delivering emissions reductions across the wider economy; agriculture, for example, is just one sector where the introduction of IT promises to deliver huge cuts in carbon emissions and improvements in productivity, through everything from remote crop monitoring systems to molecular biology and the growth of bioinformatics. Not only have we allowed businesses and individuals to do things that weren't previously possible, but we have made processes inherently more efficient.
We've divided these into three loose categories which we call enhance, enable and transform.
Firstly, enhancing technologies make existing processes or systems more efficient; for instance, Philips CosmoPolis streetlights are roughly twice as bright, but only use half the power of conventional street lights.
Secondly, enabling technologies let us do things in different ways – they enable new processes. So, for instance, digital evidence seals allow us to store evidential material in digital form, with every amendment logged and authenticated. The potential is now there to save untold reams of paper.
And finally, transformational technologies change things altogether and lead to the creation of new, lower carbon business models. Broadband, for example, is a transformational technology. Thanks to broadband we have the ability to videoconference and download digital content. Broadband has changed the whole telecoms marketplace and is leading to new, virtualised business models for high-impact activities such as travel.
While ICT emissions may increase in future as the world moves into the digital era, the reductions they enable in other sectors, and the transformations in human behaviour they facilitate, will play a huge role in reducing UK carbon emissions. ICT is the tool that is ready to use now – it can bring in smart infrastructures, buildings, processes and smart homes to cut carbon immediately, reducing the carbon build up while other tools are developed.
With Kevin Anderson’s warnings ringing in my ears, it’s clear we have a lot more to do to avert dangerous global temperature rises and ICT is a key player in this challenge. Ultimately, the big prize lies in finding a way to efficiently and cost-effectively de-carbonise energy production.
I believe we will see the coming together of bio-tech, high-tech manufacturing and engineering – facilitated by the intelligent application of ICT. So, in the long term, we will have to use technology to strip the carbon from our energy, but ICT can deliver hugely beneficial quick wins right now.
Combating climate change will be a long, hard journey, and it’s important we realise the power of ICT to take those first assured steps.
Emma Fryer is energy and environment programme manager at IT trade group Intellect
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WHAT DO YOU THINK? Add your comment
It's not the hardware
I've done a reasonable amount of research on real datacenters. Clearly there are some quick wins in better hardware efficiency. However, there's more to be saved by better processes managing the way IT works: - ~10% of kit is not doing anything at all, and this is mostly the older stuff, so less efficient. Better asset management and capacity planning will remove this. New technology (eg virtualization) may help, but better management is needed. Higher energy costs may make this happen. - All new compute capacity is swallowed up by new software, and, contrary to the article, the power efficiency of hardware does not follow Moore's Law, so the power needs of DCs grow. There is no pricing signal on software development to slow this cause of increased power. Web based apps make this situation worse as much of the CO2 generated is in the end user's computer. @Harbinger, I think that you need to read around this matter further. I suggest Bjorn Lomborg's "the Skeptical Environmentalist". It could give your comments more weight, and helps to separate out the measurement errors from what can be known.
Posted by Tim Coote, 26 Mar 2009
Fighting Climate Change?
Anderson an expert? Certainly not a climate expert. Anderson's bio at Manchester Tyndall: Research Director of Tyndall-Manchester's Energy and Climate Change programme and manager of the Tyndall Centre's energy pathways to global decarbonisation programme. Kevin is based in the Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering at the University of Manchester and is an honorary lecturer in Environmental Management at the Manchester Business School. "Managing and understanding the linkages between the disparate projects demands a genuinely interdisciplinary approach, synthesising, for example, highly technical electrical power systems research with conceptually demanding interpretations of equity and carbon emissions scenarios for the UK's energy system." Conceptually demanding interpretations? This is just sociological claptrap. He is certainly not researching climate, he starts from the view point that Global Warming as per IPCC is a given and then proceeds to play computer games around it. The only experiments are thought experiments which simply is not science. There is no research, there is no new science, there is just computer modelling, with inadequate data on the atmosphere producing unbelievable scenarios that exist only on a computer screen. The approach is: "given this, what will happen if that". IPCC says that global temperature rose by 0.7degC since 1850. Thank goodness it has, because we were in the depths of the Little Ice Age for 500 years before then, when temperatures were up to 2 degrees colder than today. Who decides what the correct temperature of the Earth should be? Surely it shouldn't be what it was in 1850, we would be using massive amounts of energy for heating if it were. They also say that it is very likely that humans have caused the temperature rise over the last fifty years. Strange thing is that for the UK, annual temperature fifty years ago in 1959, was 10.48deg C. In 2008 UK annual temperature was 10.02 deg C. In that time atmospheric CO2 has risen by 22%. Will someone please tell me how a) a 0.46 degree fall in temperature is global warming and b)If CO2 drives temperature, why hasn't it?
Posted by Harbinger, 19 Feb 2009
A revolutionary silver bullet energy production technology
By the way, I am NOT an agent of MPI, but am a global warming activist who thinks he's found a silver bullet that has been overlooked because to embrace it requiores a change of paradigm. "We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them." --Albert Einstein Today, most of our electricity is produced by "electromagnetic induction," where a magnet is moved in and out of a coil of wire in a closed circuit. Instead, wind a solenoidal coil around a magnet, and apply electricity. The magnetic field is amplified, and the magnetic gradient can be exploited to yield more electricity than was used powering the solenoidal coil. A private California company called Magnetic Power Inc ( www.magneticpowerinc.com ) exceeded breakeven (i.e. produced more electricity than it used) with a prototype in late 2004. http://tinyurl.com/cvh7re "In association with Magnetic Power Inc. I'm on the web talking about this. Please don't try to get me involved in your own crackpot project - one is enough. Basically, I believe it would be possible to get what looks like free energy (but which may not in fact be free) from static magnetic fields. At best, it could be revolutionary, at worst I'll have another story to tell at my own expense. I've looked at the technological approach and couldn't knock any holes in it. I am a skeptic and will believe it when I see it, and I can't see why I can't do it myself. I don't ask for permission from physicists in doing my engineering - engineers create phenomenon and physicists explain them - first things first." --Lee Felsenstein, SuperHappyDevHouse.org All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second, it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident. -- Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)
Posted by Brad Arnold, 19 Feb 2009