Boycott threat ups ante for Copenhagen's final week

The simmering tensions between rich and poor nations at the Copenhagen summit threatened to boil over again yesterday when it emerged that a number of African leaders could boycott the crucial final days of the talks.

In an echo of the walkout that disrupted the final round of negotiations in Barcelona last month, negotiators for several African countries said their leaders may not attend the summit unless a draft agreement is finalised within the next few days.

While the first week of talks delivered significant progress in a number of areas, key issues surrounding emission targets and funding commitments remain unresolved and diplomats from poorer nations fear that failure to finalise a draft agreement will result in their leaders being pressured to sign up to a deal that is not in their best interests when they attend the final two days of the talks.

China and India are known to be deeply concerned that developing countries will be vulnerable to having their arms twisted in the frantic final hours of the summit, and as a result they want to see the draft agreement completed before world leaders arrive to sign the document.

Yesterday, diplomats for some of the world's poorest nations signalled they would rather their leaders stayed away than have them exposed to strong-arm negotiating tactics from industrialised countries.

"The industrialised countries want to hammer out a large part of the deal on the last day, when the heads of state arrive," one senior African negotiator told the Guardian. "It's a ploy to slip through provisions that are not amenable to developing country efforts. It's playing dirty."

Another African diplomat told the paper that it was "more than probable" that many heads of state will boycott the talks if a draft agreement is not in place within the next three days.

The threatened boycott appeared to receive tacit support from the Indian and Chinese delegations, who both signalled that they wanted the draft text completed before world leaders begin to arrive on Thursday. "I hope the only question we will leave for leaders is how to pronounce Copenhagen," said Su Wei, China's leading climate negotiator.

The latest developments came as former prime minister Tony Blair urged world leaders to "not make the best the enemy of the good" and deliver a compromise deal that gives businesses the certainty they need to invest in low-carbon technologies.

Speaking at an event on the sidelines of the Copenhagen summit yesterday organised by the Climate Group, Blair insisted that a robust deal was possible but only if countries accept it "will not be all that everyone wants" and map out a compromise position.

He argued that an agreement based on the most ambitious funding and emissions commitments put forward by each country would serve to drive global investments in low-carbon technologies, and accelerate action in those areas where emission cuts can be delivered quickly, such as reducing deforestation and improving energy efficiency.

"It will be argued that these commitments fall short of what the science tells us is necessary," Blair said. "That is true, at least on some calculations. But it is also true that the accumulated impact implies a radical change in economic production and growth. In other words, they would mean a big change in policy that would itself have a highly incentivising effect on the future development of technology and the propensity of business to invest in clean energy and use it."

He added that once Copenhagen serves to start the transition to a low-carbon economy, interim assessments every five years or so could serve to check whether or not the process requires accelerating.

"That really is the objective for Copenhagen: to get us moving," Blair observed. "To be the signal set that makes us switch track to a low-carbon future. And to make sure that everyone is on the train, going in the same direction. Some will be at the front, some at the back. Some will pay more than others. But together we are on board for a new destination for the global economy."