China's rapid growth imperils global climate change goal, says study

China's booming economic growth imperils a global target to limit global warming to two degrees, according to a major new report from an influential government think-tank.

Released yesterday by the Energy Research Institute, China's Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050 says that even if the nation were to embark on an aggressive strategy to cut greenhouse gas emissions, halting CO2 growth would be difficult given the country's current stage of rapid economic development.

"There is a huge number of cities to be built," study co-author He Jiankun told reporters. "They will consume a large amount of steel and cement. This means that emissions will not be reduced for some time."

The problem with the global target, according to the report, was that the two-degree limit – which was formally adopted by G8 nations in July – does not make adequate concessions for the industrialisation of developing countries.

The report said that in order to even get close to the target, it was up to wealthy nations to make carbon emission cuts of at least 90 per cent on 1990 levels by 2050. Otherwise, global temperatures will rise between 2.8 and 3.2 degrees above the pre-industrial average, estimated the report, which was conducted over a two-year period and had involved 10 independent institutes, including WWF and the US-based Energy Foundation.

However, the study predicted that China, the world's biggest polluter, could curb emissions in the medium term, arguing that if it were to adopt stringent emissions policies and make substantial investments in energy-efficient industries, transport and buildings, the emissions could peak between 2030 and 2035 before falling back to 2005 levels.

Dai Yande, deputy chief of the Energy Research Institute, also offered some hope that emissions could be cut quicker than expected, telling the Guardian newspaper that unanticipated improvements in low-carbon technology could emerge. "Technological innovation is hard to measure," he said. "Nobody could imagine in the 1960s that everyone would have a cell phone and internet access."

The report follows a recent study by China's Energy Research Institute, which recommends the establishment of absolute targets to cap carbon emissions.

China, which has set a goal of becoming an industrialised and developed country by 2050, has consistently resisted setting a CO2 reduction target. But in recent months there have been indications that it may offer to adopt some form of carbon-intensity target relative to its economic development as part of any international climate change deal agreed in Copenhagen in December.

Jim Watson, an expert on energy policy at the University of Sussex, told Reuters that the latest report "confirms the impression that China’s position [on climate change] is shifting and there’s a very healthy debate".

The report comes as China's President Hu Jintao prepares to attend next week's UN climate change conference in New York where he is expected to provide further details on the country's climate change strategy and the nature of the international deal it would be willing to sign.