India's greenhouse gases to double by 2031, predicts report

India's greenhouse gases are expected to double by 2031, according to a report issued by the government that emphasises figures showing that levels will still be well below the per capita global average.

Released yesterday, India's GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies forecasts that carbon dioxide emissions will rise to between 4bn to 7.3bn tonnes by 2031.

However, the government described the projected emission levels as "low", arguing that with India's population expected to reach 1.5 billion by 2031 per capita carbon output will stand at between 2.7 and five tonnes, still "lower than the per capita global emission of [CO2] in the year 2005".

"The results should set at rest any apprehensions that India's [greenhouse gas] emissions are poised for runaway increase over the next two decades," the report stated.

India currently emits about three billion tonnes of greenhouse gases annually, making it the world's fourth-largest polluter.

The study, issued by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, was compiled using data from five independent studies and involved global consultancy Mckinsey & Co, along with Indian entities National Council of Applied Economic Research, Jadavpur University, Tata Energy Research Institute and the Integrated Research and Action for Development.

The figures were calculated on the assumption that the country will commit to emission reduction measures, including the utilisation of clean power sources and improvements in energy efficiency.

India last week unveiled a wide-reaching energy efficiency plan aimed at saving nearly 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide annually by 2015.

The nation will likely use the study findings to fortify its stance at the UN climate change talks in December in Copenhagen, where it is expected to come under pressure to set an emissions reduction target.

The country has resisted calls by the US to set limits on CO2 output in the belief that doing so would slow domestic economic growth.