US admits it expects Copenhagen Treaty to be delayed until 2010

The final nail in the coffin of hopes that a legally binding climate change treaty will be agreed at the UN's Copenhagen Summit was hammered in yesterday when US officials revealed they did not expect a binding deal to be agreed until next year – although they insisted a robust political agreement could still be reached in Copenhagen.

Speaking to the House Foreign Relations Committee yesterday, the state department's climate change envoy Todd Stern confirmed the open secret that negotiators were now working to a revised time line that would see a binding international treaty signed next year.

"It doesn't look like it's on the cards for December," he said. "We should make progress towards a political agreement that hits each of the main elements. "

However, he insisted that Copenhagen could still deliver tangible commitments to cut emissions from the world's largest polluters, as well as a blueprint for a legally binding treaty covering issues such as climate change funding, forest protection and the expansion of carbon markets.

"We want something beyond a declaration that we are going to keep working on this," he said. "We want a real agreement."

His comments were echoed by Senator John Kerry, who chairs the Foreign Relations Committee and is working to secure support for the proposed US climate bill that he co-authored with Democrat Senator Barbara Boxer.

He said that the US would aim to deliver a "binding and real political agreement" in Copenhagen that would then allow for a treaty to be signed either next summer or at the UN's next major climate change summit in Mexico in December 2010.

However, he admitted that the success of even this revised time line was contingent on the US passing its own climate change bill early next year – a scenario that looks increasingly doubtful after entrenched Republican opposition to the proposed legislation this week forced Democrat Senators to order a new analysis of the economic impact of the bill from the Environmental Protection Agency, which is expected to take up to five weeks.

But Kerry insisted that progress towards a Senate vote was still being made behind the scenes, revealing that he is working with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, former Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman and White House officials to develop a version of the bill that could pass through the Senate with bipartisan support.

Meanwhile, sources have revealed that Democrats are considering advancing the current version of the Boxer-Kerry bill out of the Environment and Public Works Committee, despite a Republican boycott of meetings intended to finalise the draft bill.

Democratic aides told the Associated Press that the committee was considering staging a vote on the bill as early as this morning. With Republicans refusing to attend the so-called mark-up sessions, the bill would be advanced through the committee without amendments.

In related news, the last round of negotiations before the Copenhagen summit continued in Barcelona yesterday, with delegates attempting to deal with the fallout from the boycott staged by African nations on Tuesday.

The unprecedented protest was triggered by frustration among the poorest nations at industrialised countries' refusal to commit to emission-reduction targets in line with those recommended by climate scientists. The boycott of work sessions led to a rescheduling of the final days of the meeting designed to push the issue of carbon targets up the agenda.

African negotiators hailed the protest as a success, saying that they were pleased to have received near unanimous support from other developing countries.

However, rich nations stepped up the pressure on African countries not to derail the two-year-long negotiating process at the eleventh hour, warning that while they had legitimate concerns, boycotting the talks would only serve to end any chance of a deal being reached.

Several African leaders were reported to have delivered "strong" phone calls to their negotiating teams, urging them not to derail the talks, while the chairman of the Africa group of nations Kamel Djemouai was recalled from the meeting by the Algerian government, although officials insisted it was not related to the protest.

Sources close to the African coalition told the Guardian that the protest had been planned last month and had the support of African heads of state.

"It was a political act, not a negotiating stand. The negotiators here in Barcelona were told to make a dramatic action," said one source.

Bruno Sekoli, head of the Lesotho national climate office, told the paper that the group had been "pleased" with the reaction to the walkout. "Africa had no choice because of the reality of climate change," he said. "Climate change is an issue of life or death for us. The developed countries have to shift policies. A bad deal is not good for Africa or vulnerable countries."