Deadlock fears stalk Copenhagen process

Concern is mounting that negotiations to agree a successor to the Kyoto deal are in danger of stalling after UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon this week warned that large developing economies such as China and India were not doing enough to curb carbon emissions.

Speaking at the Delhi Sustainable Development Summit, Ki-moon chastised developing economies for focusing on the extent to which the developed world is to blame for climate change and not doing enough to address their own rising emissions.

"Brazil has been taking quite a proactive role in the implementation of biofuel and forestation policies. China and India have also taken steps. But that is not enough, they have to do more," he said, adding that "we should not argue who is more responsible, who is less responsible, who should do more… This is a common, shared responsibility."

Ki-Moon was immediately accused of attempting to "strong arm" developing nations into signing up to emission caps as part of a deal that would see developed economies sign up to significantly deeper cuts.

His comments came just days after Chinese prime minister Wen Jiaobao hinted that the country was unlikely to agree to binding emission targets.

"It's difficult for China to take quantified emission reduction quotas at the Copenhagen conference, because this country is still at an early stage of development," he said in an interview with the Financial Times. " Europe started its industrialisation several hundred years ago but for China, it has only been dozens of years."

The Indian government also reiterated its view that while it would commit to ensuring per capita carbon emissions do not surpass that of developed countries, it would not sin up to binding targets.

Experts are increasingly concerned that a stand-off is developing whereby the US and other western economies will only sign up to emissions targets if China and India similarly commit to cut overall emissions.

Meanwhile, the UN's top climate change official Yvo de Boer predicted that the EU's offer to cut emissions 30 per cent by 2020 if other large economies agree to similar cuts is likely to be rejected by the US.

Speaking to reporters at the Delhi conference, he said that he did not think it was feasible for the US to deliver cuts of between 20 and 30 per cent on 1990 levels by 2020, given that it was currently projected to emit 34 per cent more than in the base year by the same date.

President Obama has said the US should aim to cut emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, but while welcoming the new goal De Boer said the US was unlikely to be able to deliver the deeper cuts of over 20 per cent needed to push the EU to upgrade its own target. He added that the EU was in a better position to deliver genuine cuts on 1990 levels as a result of its participation in the Kyoto Agreement.

"Because of Kyoto, Europe will already reduce its emissions by eight per cent by 2010, so for Europe to go to minus 20 per cent, it means a 12 per cent reduction, " he said. "And then there are other factors. The European population is not growing but the American population is."