China official targets carbon emissions reduction starting in 2050

Conflicting reports have emerged concerning when China could begin to reduce its carbon emissions, with a senior climate official quoted as saying emissions will peak by 2050, while a new report by national policy advisors estimated that greenhouse gases could peak by 2030.

The developments mark the first time that the country has given a timeframe for a decline in greenhouse gases, for which China is the world's largest emitter.

Last week, the foreign ministry's climate change negotiator, Yu Qingtai, said it was too early for the nation to set a precise date for when it expects carbon emissions to peak.

But speaking to the Financial Times over the weekend, Su Wei, director general of the National Development and Reform Commission's climate change department, said that "China's emissions will not continue to rise beyond 2050". He did not specify, however, a level at which carbon output would peak.

Meanwhile, a new study suggests that strict CO2 caps could slow emissions growth from 2020, reaching a peak in 2030.

The 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report recommends that national greenhouse gas output be studied "as soon as possible", followed by the establishment of absolute targets "to cap the total volume of carbon dioxide emissions", according to Reuters news service.

If China can achieve these goals, then by 2050 its carbon dioxide output from fossil fuels "could fall to the same emissions levels as in 2005 or even lower" , the report predicts.

Contributors to the study include climate change experts from national think-tanks, including the Energy Research Institute and the State Council Development Research Centre.

China is unlikely to set stringent emissions caps, however, as Su reiterated China's stance that economic growth was a priority to eradicate poverty.

The report outlined a "business as usual" scenario focused on financial growth, with few emissions controls that would result in a forecasted CO2 output from fossil fuels alone peaking at 3.5 billion tonnes of pure carbon a year by 2040.