China to cut carbon intensity by 40-45 per cent

Reports have today emerged that China will commit to cutting its carbon intensity – the amount of carbon it emits per unit of GDP – by 40 to 45 per cent on 2005 levels by 2020.

According to the Xinhua news agency, government officials have confirmed the voluntary target, which had been anticipated since president Hu Jintao pledged that China would set a target to reduce its carbon intensity by a "notable margin" ahead of next month's Copenhagen summit.

The news agency quoted the state council as saying: "This is a voluntary action taken by the Chinese government based on its own national conditions and is a major contribution to the global effort in tackling climate change."

However, while the announcement will be welcomed by Western officials as a starting point for negotiations, there is scepticism that the target will break the long-standing deadlock over emission-reduction targets.

Speaking ahead of the announcement of the Chinese target, one European diplomat told the Guardian that "some of the numbers being bandied around seem worryingly low given China's weight of economic growth." He added that the EU remained confident China would ultimately set an ambitious target, but noted that "only really when it gets to be more than 50 per cent does it start to represent more hope than we have seen historically".

Observers have also noted that the lower end of the range announced by China represents little more than business as usual given that the country's carbon intensity is already falling rapidly as it continues to industrialise.

The delicate negotiations around emission targets are further complicated by the fact that the White House announcement yesterday that it will cut emissions by about 17 per cent on 2005 levels is also likely to face criticism from China and other de veloping countries.

While the proposed US cuts are deliberately in line with that being considered under the domestic climate change bill that is working its way through the Senate, the scale of the cuts would result in only marginal emission reductions on 1990 levels. China, India and other developing countries have demanded that the US and other industrialised countries commit to cut emissions by 40 per cent on 1990 levels.

In related news, the Chinese government has announced that prime minister Wen Jiabao will attend the Copenhagen summit.

The announcement, which comes just a day after the White House confirmed president Obama would also attend, brought a muted response from negotiators, who had remained hopeful that Chinese president Hu Jintao would be present at the talks.

One Western source told the Guardian that the move was "not positive ", noting that Wen will not have the same negotiating clout as the Chinese president.

Wen has a history of working on climate change issues, but he is unlikely to be able to commit China to any deal without authorisation from Beijing, and negotiators hoping to convince China to sign up to ambitious commitments had hoped that they would be able to make their case directly to the president.

However, with president Obama set to be joined by more than 65 world leaders at the Copenhagen summit and both the US and China finally tabling emission targets, hopes are higher than at any point in recent months that some form of deal can be agreed next month.