Australian cap-and-trade bill on a knife edge

Rudd: Determined

The possibility of a snap election in Australia moved a step closer today as the Parliament’s upper house delayed a final vote on the government’s carbon trading programme.

The Senate now plans to return on Monday to continue debating the package of 11 bills, which the government is determined to push through before the summer recess, which starts later next week.

The Senate already rejected the proposed new laws in August, and if the situation happens again, Rudd can dissolve Parliament and could call an early election next year.

Adoption of the carbon trading scheme is central to Rudd’s plans to cut the country’s emissions by five per cent on 2000 levels by 2020.

Opinion polls suggest that Rudd would win an increased majority in any election. The Reuters Poll Trend on Tuesday found that he has an almost 11-point lead on the conservative Liberal-National coalition in opposition, with support currently standing at 55.4 per cent.

And the opposition appears to be in disarray. Leader Malcolm Turnbull did a deal with Rudd to back the initiative and only seven opposition votes are required to pass the legislation. But in so doing, Turnbull put his leadership on the line and split his party.

He has already faced down one leadership challenge this Wednesday, but is expected to face another one next week following an open revolt by climate sceptics, which is putting the arrangement with Judd in jeopardy.

The sceptics have signed a letter calling for a fresh leadership vote on Monday and former minister Tony Abbott has said he will challenge Turner for the top job. He is also likely to abandon the deal with the government, which could see the number of Senate representatives backing the trading scheme fall, leading to its second defeat.

The most likely candidate for the post, however, is treasury spokesman Joe Hockey, who remains loyal to Turnbull and has publicly supported the carbon trading scheme. But even if Turnbull keeps his job, it is thought that as many as 18 opposition senators could defy him.