Copenhagen kicks off amidst mounting optimism

After two years of negotiations the Copenhagen Summit was formally launched this morning, as organisers and key players expressed optimism that an ambitious deal can be agreed over the next two weeks.

Speaking in his final press conference ahead of the fortnight-long talks, the UN's top climate change official Yvo de Boer appeared uncharacteristically optimistic, warning that while considerable work had still to be done the recent flurry of emission targets announced by both rich and poor nations meant there was a good chance an agreement would be reached.

"Never in the 17 years of climate negotiations have so many different nations made so many firm pledges together," said De Boer. "It's simply unprecedented."

De Boer was speaking as the UN Environment Program published a report from British economist Lord Stern and the Grantham Research Institute detailing how the emission targets already announced by the world's largest polluters were considerably closer to that recommended by scientists than had been previously thought.

The report calculated that while the world should emit no more than 44bn tons of carbon dioxide by 2020, compliance with the high end of all publicly announced targets made to date would result in annual emissions of around 46bn tons.

"We are within a few gigatons of having a deal," said UNEP director Achim Steiner. "The gap has narrowed significantly."

The press conference came as South Africa yesterday became the latest emerging economy to announce greenhouse gas emission targets, pledging to cut emissions by 34 per cent on business as usual levels by 2020. Significantly, the South African government also said that it would aim to cut emissions by 42 per cent on business as usual levels by 2025, effectively ensuring that its emissions peak by that date before beginning to decline.

In addition, China hinted that it could eventually sign up to more detailed emission reduction targets when a senior official predicted that the country's emissions would peak between 2030 and 2040.

China has already said that it will aim to cut its carbon intensity by between 40 and 45 per cent by 2020, although this stops short of committing to actual emission reductions. However, in an interview with the Guardian, the country's science and technology minister Wan Gang said that he hoped that emissions would peak during the 2030s.

"There are some uncertainties here, so it is difficult to say whether it will be in the beginning, the end or the middle, but I can say for sure it will be within that range," he said. "As the minister of science and technology I would say the sooner the better."

Scientists have said that an earlier emissions peak will be required from large emerging economies such as China to help limit the risk of dangerous climate change. However, talk of any emission reduction targets is likely to be welcomed by negotiators at the Copenhagen Summit, while Wan was quick to point out that China has consistently exceeded its environmental and energy efficiency targets in recent years.

There was also encouraging news over the weekend from India where Prime Minister Manmohan Singh confirmed he would attend the last two days of the summit. A government spokesman said that Singh would address the summit on December 17 following its pledge last week to cut the carbon intensity of its economy by between 20 and 25 per cent by 2020 levels.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press reported that President Obama would attend the talks for longer than anticipated. Following phone conversations with other world leaders, Obama is said to have revised his plans which would originally have seen him attend the summit for just five hours on route to Oslo for a ceremony to collect his Nobel Peace Prize. He is now expected to attend the conclusion of the summit, prompting speculation that a deal is closer to finalisation than many observers expected.

About 90 world leaders have now said they will attend the talks at some point during their final week. "Negotiators now have the clearest signal ever from world leaders to craft solid proposals to implement rapid action," said De Boer.