Think tank: China must cut carbon intensity five per cent a year

China will need to cut its carbon intensity by four to five per cent annually and introduce a CO2 tax if it is to achieve its goal of attaining "low carbon development" by 2050, according to one of the country's leading think-tanks.

The China Council of International Cooperation on Environment and Development released a report this week advising that carbon intensity – the amount of carbon emissions produced per dollar of GDP – will have to drop by between 85 and 90 per cent by the middle of the century, compared with 2005 levels.

The report also noted that "the time is ripe" for tax reforms that would impose levies on emissions of CO2 and other pollutants. "China needs to introduce a carbon tax by 2020, otherwise it will be too late for the country to fulfill its goals in coping with climate change," said the report authors.

The think-tank, comprised of 200 experts on pollution control and environmental management from around the globe, regularly offers policy suggestions to China's national government. Its latest findings will be submitted as a proposal to Chinese leaders this week, the state-run China Daily reported yesterday.

The development follows a recent commitment by Chinese president Hu Jintao that the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases would set a target to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by a "notable margin". Observers are now waiting for that target to be set, with negotiators hopeful that it will be announced ahead of the crucial UN climate change talks in Copenhagen next month.

However, Renmin University of China environment policy professor Zou Ji doubted the proposals would be formally implemented, as the nation's future economic growth will be underpinned by industrial expansion.

"Urbanisation and industrialisation in China will have to continue until around 2030," Zou told China Daily. "The industrial sector will still take up about 46 per cent of the whole economy by then, which means carbon emissions will continue to grow."

In contrast, the report calls for the manufactoring sector – as a proportion of the nation's economy – to be reduced in prominence from the current 50 per cent to about 30 per cent by mid-century.