BusinessGreen runs down the intended national emissions pledges already submitted by countries ahead of a global deal to cut carbon emissions
With the Paris climate talks fast approaching, the nearly 200 countries due to attend the United Nations summit have been asked to submit the national climate action plans and emissions pledges that are expected to provide the basis of any deal.
Nearly 180 countries have officially filed their pledges under the system of so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). This includes some of the world's biggest economies, including the EU and the US. Drawing on recent analysis from PwC, BusinessGreen takes a look at some of the most important pledges and what they could mean for those countries' policy and investment landscapes.
Afghanistan has pledged to cut emissions by 13.6 per cent by 2030 compared to a business-as-usual scenario, but this is dependent on international finance.
Albania has promised an 11.5 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. The country's INDC pledge contains a long-term plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions to two tonnes per capita by 2050.
Algeria - The North African country pledged to curb carbon emissions by at least seven per cent compared to business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2030, rising to 22 per cent depending on the level of international financial support it receives. It also plans to generate 27 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, and cut its energy consumption by nine per cent through initiatives such as a national housing insulation programme.
Andorra pledged a 37 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from a business-as-usual scenario by 2030.
Antigua and Barbuda committed to a series of conditional and unconditional targets to reduce emissions, including preparing buildings for climate extremes and increasing renewable power production.
Armenia has pledged to curb per capita emissions to 5.4 tonnes between 2015 and 2050.
Australia - pledged to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent by 2030 based on 2005 levels covering all sectors of the economy, including land use emissions.
Azerbaijan has promised a 35 per cent cut in emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. This still leaves room for emissions to grow slightly, as they are currently about 40 per cent below 1990 levels.
Bangladesh has promised unconditionally to reduce its emissions in the power, transport and industry sectors five per cent by 2030, against business-as-usual levels. It has made a further promise to reduce emissions by 15 per cent, provided more international support is made available to boost the country's clean development.
Barbados pledged emissions cuts of 44 per cent by 2030 against business-as-usual. This is the equivalent of a 23 per cent cut in absolute terms from 2008.
Belarus pledged to cut emissions by 28 per cent by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.
Bhutan has reiterated its pledge to remain carbon neutral, which it first announced in 2009. It also repeated its pledge to keep 60 per cent of its national land forested.
Bolivia announced a range of highly ambitious goals, and said capitalism must be "destroyed" for a lasting solution on climate change. It pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2020 and boost the share of renewable energy to 79 per cent by 2030 from 39 per cent in 2010.
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Pledged to cut emissions by three per cent by 2030 compared to a business-as usual scenario, but this would rise to 23 per cent with international financial support.
Botswana pledged to cut emissions by 15 per cent by 2030, using 2010 as the base year.
Brazil has pledged to slash its emissions by 37 per cent by 2025, rising to 43 per cent by 2030, measured against a 2005 baseline.
Burkina Faso said it would reduce emissions by 6.6 per cent by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, with a further 11.6 per cent reduction promised with the provision of international support.
Burundi has pledged a 20 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, conditional on international support.
Cambodia has committed to a 27 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. It also plans to increase forest cover to 60 per cent of the country's national land area by 2030.
Cameroon has pledged to curb the growth of its carbon emissions by 32 per cent by 2035 against business-as-usual levels. This equates to a real increase in emissions of 71 megatons of CO2 between 2010 and 2035, as opposed to 104 megatons under business-as-usual. The main reductions will come from reducing the environmental impact of the country's agricultural and energy production sectors.
Canada has proposed to cut its emissions by 30 per cent against 2005 levels by 2030. PwC suggests this target is actually more ambitious than the EU and US targets, despite reports to the contrary. It will require Canada to decarbonise at a rate of 3.9 per cent per year, which is close to what France achieved in the 1980s when it made its switch to nuclear power.
Central African Republic will reduce emissions by five per cent on business-as-usual levels by 2030, at a total cost of $3.69bn.
Chad has promised to cut emissions by 18.2 per cent by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. This rises to 71 per cent with international assistance.
Chile promised an unconditional 30 per cent reduction in emissions per unit of GDP by 2030, compared to 2007 levels. With international support, this rises to 35-45 per cent.
China has pledged for emissions to peak before 2030. It has said it will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP by 60 to 65 per cent from 2005 level by 2030, while aiming to increase non-fossil fuel sources in primary energy consumption to about 20 per cent by the same date. The government has declared meeting the target will require $6.6tr of low carbon infrastructure investment to be mobilised through to 2030.
Colombia pledged to reduce its emissions by 20 per cent by 2030 compared to a business as usual scenario, but this could rise to 30 per cent will additional international finance.
Comoros will cut its emissions by 85 per cent compared to a business as usual scenario. This would require a total investment of about $675m of which about 10 per cent could come from the national budget and the remainder would need to come from international climate finance.
Congo has committed to slashing emissions by 48 per cent by 2025, rising to 55 per cent in 2035, against business-as-usual levels.
The Democratic Republic of Congo has pledged to cut emissions by 17 per cent by 2030 based on 2000 levels, on the condition that it receives $21bn of support from the international community.
Costa Rica plans to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 24.7 per cent below 2012 levels by 2030.
Djibouti said it would curb its emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 compared to a business as usual scenario but this could rise to 60 per cent if the country receives an additional $1.6bn from the international community such as the Green Climate Fund.
Dominica has said it will cut greenhouse gas emissions by 44.7 per cent by 2030, compared to 2014 levels - conditional on international funding.
Dominican Republic pledged a 25 per cent cut in emissions compared to 2010 levels by 2030. But this is conditional on long term political support, climate finance mechanisms and "corrections to the failures of existing market mechanisms". The country promised to review its target every five years.
Ecuador pledges to cut energy sector emissions by up to 25 per cent by 2025 compared to business-as-usual levels, rising to 37.5 - 45.8 per cent with international support.
Eritrea has promised to cut emissions by 80.6 per cent by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. Almost 40 per cent of this is unconditional. The country's pledge includes plans to boost its share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 70 per cent.
The EU has said it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent compared with 1990 levels by 2030. Given expected economic growth in the region, this means the EU will likely have to double its rate of decarbonisation to meet the target. As a result, businesses can expect a step change in climate policy, regulation and investment over the coming years.
Ethiopia has pledged a 64 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 against a business-as-usual scenario. Given the country's anticipated economic growth, this equates to a three per cent cut against a 2010 baseline.
Equatorial Guinea aims to reduce emissions 20 per cent by 2030, relative to 2010 levels, as part of long-running efforts to achieve a 50 per cent reduction by 2050.
Fiji pledged an unconditional 10 per cent emissions cut by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, or a 30 per cent emissions cut dependant on international support. This applies to energy emissions only. It also included an additional target of using 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2030.
Gabon has said it would cut emissions 50 per cent by 2025 compared with a business-as-usual scenario.
Gambia has pledged to cut emissions by 44 per cent by 2025, rising to just over 45 per cent by 2030, against business-as-usual. This excludes land use and forestry.
Georgia has committed to cutting emissions by 15 per cent by 2030, compared to business-as-usual - a pledge which could increase to 25 per cent with international support.
Ghana will reduce emissions by 45 per cent by 2030, against business-as-usual. However, while 15 per cent of this commitment is unconditional, the remaining 30 per cent is conditional on additional international support.
Grenada pledged to cut emissions by 30 per cent against 2010 levels by 2025, on course to a 40 per cent reduction by 2030.
Guatemala plans to cut its emissions by just over 11 per cent by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. This would increase to 22.6 per cent with international assistance.
Guinea has committed to implementing mitigation actions that equate to a 13 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. This does not take into account land use or forestry.
Guinea Bissau is a net carbon sink, and has not submitted a plan to reduce its emissions. It does pledge to improve develop a national reforestation strategy, develop more resistant crops and rolling out new forms of renewable electric power generation.
Guyana has pledged to cut emissions by 52m tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2025, from the forestry and energy sectors.
Haiti has promised that emissions will fall to five per cent below 2000 levels by 2030. This target increases to 31 per cent with international assistance.
Honduras has said it will cut emissions by 15 per cent by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. It also plans to plant one million hectares of forest.
Iceland says it will help the EU meet its target to reduce greenhouse gases by at least 40 per cent on 1990 levels by 2030. It remains unclear what specific commitment Iceland would adopt to reach this goal, but it implies it will adopt targets similar to those put forward by the EU.
Indonesia has pledged to make a 29 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. This goal will increase to 41 per cent subject to international agreements on climate aid.
Israel has pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 26 per cent by 2030, against 2005 levels.
Ivory Coast committed to cutting emissions 28 per cent against a business-as-usual level, rising to 36 per cent if certain conditions are met.
Japan will reduce emissions by 26 per cent on 2013 levels by 2030. The country has been criticised in some quarters for not showing sufficient ambition with its new targets. But according to PwC, this means Japan will need to reduce its carbon emissions on average by 3.1 per cent each year, assuming economic growth of 1.4 per cent annually. This would require a major step change from the current 0.5 per cent decarbonisation rate.
Jordan said it would commit to cutting its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1.5 per cent from business-as-usual (BAU) levels by 2030. However, it added that the target could rise to 14 per cent conditional on international financial support.
Kazakhstan has said it will cut its emissions by 15 per cent by 2030, compared with 1990 levels. This could rise to 25 per cent if international finance is made available.
Kenya has pledged to cut emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 against business-as-usual levels, including plans to expand geothermal, solar and wind energy capacity, achieve 10 per cent tree cover across the country, reduce reliance on wood fuels, and deliver more sustainable transport, agriculture and waste management systems.
Kiribati will cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 12.8 per cent by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. If additional international finance is provided, this rises to 49 per cent.
Lao People's Democratic Republic has pledged to increase its national forested area to 70 per cent of total land area by 2020 and export hydroelectricity to neighbouring countries. It also plans to increase the country's renewable energy share to 30 per cent by 2025. No overall carbon reduction target is provided.
Lebanon has committed to reducing its emission by 15 per cent by 2030 against business as usual, rising to 30 per cent with international finance.
Lesotho has pledged to cut emission by 10 per cent against business-as-usual levels by 2030, rising to 35 per cent with international support.
Liberia has pledged emissions cuts of 15 per cent by 2030, compared to business-as-usual - subject to international support.
Liechtenstein has pledged to deliver a 40 per cent emissions reduction on 1990 levels by 2030, in line with the EU, with the primary focus on domestic emissions.
Macedonia. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia will reduce carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion by 30 per cent compared to a business as usual scenario by 2030, rising to 36 per cent if a higher level of ambition is agreed through the Paris Summit.
Madagascar committed to reducing its emissions by 14 per cent by 2030, against business-as-usual. This commitment is conditional on international finance.
Malawi plans to cut per capita emissions from 1.4 tonnes in 2010 to 0.7-0.8 tonnes in 2030. Under business-as-usual, per capita emissions would hit 1.5 tonnes by 2030.
The Maldives has promised 10 per cent emission cuts by 2030 on business-as-usual, rising to 24 per cent with international finance.
Mali has pledged an average reduction of emissions of 27 per cent, with the biggest cuts hitting the energy and agriculture sector.
Marshall Islands has become the first island state to submit its INDC and pointedly opted for an absolute emissions reduction target and a 2025 target date, arguing such an approach is simpler and more robust than the 'below business-as-usual' goals endorsed by many developing nations. The country said it would cut emissions 32 per cent by 2025 and 45 per cent by 2030 against 2010 levels. It also said the new targets were part of its long term plan top become a net zero emission economy by 2050.
Mauritania will reduce its emissions by 22.3 per cent by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, however 88 per cent of this commitment is conditional on international support. Some 12 per cent of the pledge is unconditional.
Mauritius has pledged to slash its greenhouse gas emission by 30 per cent by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, conditional upon international technical and financial support.
Mexico has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 22 per cent compared with its 2030 business-as-usual emissions, which is roughly equivalent to a reduction of six per cent on 2005 levels. It has said it could raise its target to 36 per cent if there is a global agreement on a carbon price. Even the 22 per cent reduction would represent a step change in climate policies and investment. PwC analysis shows it would require Mexico to decarbonise at a rate of 4.8 per cent annually compared with a current trend whereby emissions intensity is slightly rising. The targets promise to cement Mexico's position as one of the world's most ambitious developing economies when it comes to climate action.
Moldova has promised to cut emission by between 64 and 67 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030. If international finance is provided, this could rise to 78 per cent.
Monaco has promised to halve greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2030.
Mongolia has unveiled an initial plan to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 14 per cent by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. However, this excludes emissions caused by changes in land use. A separate plan will be released in the future detailing measures to achieve a five per cent cut in deforestation and forest degradation emissions by 2030, subject to international finance.
Montenegro has pledged to deliver a 30 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. It reserved the right to amend this commitment if more accurate data on land use emissions comes to light.
Morocco said it would cut emissions by 13 per cent against a business-as-usual scenario by 2030 and this could be increased to 32 per cent if it receives new sources of finance and support from richer nations.
Mozambique has pledged to cut emission by about 76.5 megatons of carbon dioxide by between 2020 and 2030. However, these figures are estimates that are surrounded by a "significant level of uncertainty" according to its INDC.
Myanmar is a net greenhouse gas sink, but said the process of socio-economic development may increase its emissions over the short term. It has pledged to increase the share of forested land to 30 per cent of the country and made various commitments to deploy more renewables and improve energy efficiency, dependent on international finance.
Namibia has pledged to cut emissions by 89 per cent by 2030, compared to business-as-usual. This will mainly be achieved through reducing deforestation.
New Zealand aims to reduce greenhouse gases by 30 per cent based on 2005 levels, which translates to an 11 per cent reduction on 1990 levels.
Niger has pledged to reduce emissions by 3.5 per cent below business-as-usual levels by 2030. This would increase to 34.6 per cent with international assistance.
Norway will commit to at least a 40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, including use of EU carbon credits.
Oman pledged to cut its emissions by two per cent on business-as-usual levels, by 2030. It also promised to introduce climate legislation.
Papua New Guinea has committed to reducing its emissions by curbing harmful land use change and promoting forest conservation. It also pledges to transition to sourcing 100 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030. It says all its mitigation efforts are contingent on international funding being made available.
Peru pledged to cut emissions by 30 per cent against a business as usual scenario by 2030.
Philippines has committed to reducing its emissions by 70 per cent by 2030, against business-as-usual levels.
Russia has pledged to reduce emissions by 25 to 30 per cent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, depending on the outcome of the Paris talks and the contributions made by other countries.
Rwanda is still developing its carbon reduction targets. It has said it will use 2030 as a target year and base carbon reduction commitments on a business-as-usual baseline.
Samoa has promised to generate 100 per cent of its electricity from renewable resources by 2017. It will maintain this through to 2025 provided it receives international assistance. Currently 26 per cent of the island's electricity comes from renewables.
San Marino, an enclave in central Italy, has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to 20 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
Sao Tome and Principe has committed to reducing emissions by 24 per cent by 2030, against a 2005 baseline.
Senegal has pledged to deliver greenhouse gas cuts of six per cent compared to business as usual, rising to 31 per cent conditional on additional international support.
Serbia has said it will cut emissions by 9.8 per cent by 2030 on 1990 levels.
The Seychelles will reduce its emissions by 29 per cent on business-as-usual levels by 2030.
Sierra Leone pledged to keep emissions "relatively low" by 2035, depending on the level of international support provided.
Singapore pledged a 36 per cent cut in emission intensity by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, with emissions peaking "around 2030".
Solomon Islands pledged to cut emissions 12 per cent below business-as-usual levels by 2025, increasing to 30 per cent in 2030. With international assistance this could rise to 27 per cent and 45 per cent respectively.
South Africa - Africa's leading carbon polluter - pledged to "bend the curve" of its emissions, peaking its emissions by 2025. Emissions would then remain stable for a decade before beginning to fall, it said. The pledge bucks traditional convention of submitting specific carbon reduction goals, and the country said its overriding aims were to tackle poverty and inequality in the country.
South Korea has pledged to cut emissions 37 per cent against a business as usual baseline, up from the 15 to 30 per cent reduction it had initially proposed.
Sri Lanka has submitted an unconditional pledge to cut its emissions by seven per cent by 2030, compared to business-as-usual, or by 23 per cent depending on international assistance.
Suriname is a net carbon sink with 94 per cent of the country covered in tropical rainforest. It has provided no specific target for carbon reductions in its INDC. It does pledge to improve the distribution and use of renewable energy and promote the conservation of its tropical forests.
Swaziland has said it will draw up a national mitigation goal by 2020, once it has developed a national emissions inventory and drawn up baseline and business-as-usual projections. It has also said it will double the renewable share in its energy mix by 2030 compared to 2010.
Switzerland has pledged to cut emissions 50 per cent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, outstripping the EU's commitment. However, it has said it will partly use carbon credits from international mechanisms to help meet the target.
Tajikistan outlined a "flexible" target of between 10 - 20 per cent cuts to greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990 levels. This rises to 45 per cent with international support.
United Republic of Tanzania committed to a 10 - 20 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030 against business-as-usual. The exact reductions depend on the level of international support provided.
Thailand has pledged to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent against business-as-usual projections by 2030. This could rise to 25 per cent with greater international assistance.
Togo has committed to emissions cuts of 11 per cent on business-as-usual by 2030 - rising to 31 per cent if international support is provided.
Trinidad and Tobago pledged a 30 per cent reduction in business-as-usual CO2, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from transport, power and industry by 2030, equal in absolute terms to slashing 103 million tonnes of CO2 equivilant.
Tunisia said it would cut greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors, including energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and other land use, and waste, in order to lower its carbon intensity by 41 per cent in 2030, relative to a 2010 base year.
Turkey has pledged up to 21 per cent emissions cuts by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, by increasing the capacity of renewables and nuclear power and improving energy efficiency across multiple sectors.
Turkmenistan has committed to keeping emissions stable at 2015 levels through to 2030.
Uganda said it would cut emissions by 22 per cent by 2030 compared to business-as-usual, conditional on international support.
Ukraine announced it would not allow greenhouse gas emissions to rise to more than 60 per cent of its 1990 emissions by 2030, which still leaves it room to see emissions increase, although the government also noted its efforts to cut emissions had been hit by the conflict in the country.
United Arab Emirates promised to "limit" emissions and increase the share of clean energy in its energy mix to 24 per cent by 2021 - up from 0.2 per cent in 2014.
Uruguay said it would aim to cut emissions intensity per unit of GDP by a quarter against 1990 levels by 2030, rising to a cut of 40 per cent if the country can secure "additional means of implementation" through international climate financing agreements.
The USA intends to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent compared with 2005 levels by 2025. PwC estimates this level of ambition is on a par with that of the EU. It also claims the US will similarly need to nearly double its current rate of decarbonisation to achieve the target. Based on expected economic growth forecasts, the US will have to decarbonise at a rate of approximately four per cent per year, meaning a step change in policies and regulation.
Vanuatu said it would move to 65 per cent renewable energy by 2020, and generating nearly 100 per cent renewable electricity by 2030. These targets are conditional on receiving at least $180m in external funding.
Vietnam has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 8 per cent below business-as-usual levels - but this rises to 25 per cent with international finance.
Zambia has promised to cut emissions by 25 per cent 2030, compared to business-as-usual. This ambition would rise to 47 per cent with international finance.
Zimbabwe has pledged to reduce per capita emissions to 33 per cent below business-as-usual levels by 2030, conditional on international assistance.
This article is part of BusinessGreen's Road to Paris hub, hosted in association with PwC
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