Fossil fuels will still dominate Asia-Pacific energy in 2030, predicts ADB

Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy in Asia-Pacific by 2030, according to a new report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), which predicts a slow uptake of renewable energy at only 1.3 per cent annually over the next two decades.

Announced earlier today, the report, Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific, estimates that coal, oil and natural gas will still supply 80 per cent of the region's energy supply in 2030, driving up CO2 emissions.

Use of coal will rise 2.1 per cent annually over the next two decades to supply 38.3 per cent of Asia-Pacific's energy needs by 2030, the study estimated. Oil will supply 27 per cent, with 2.2 per cent annual growth, while natural gas use will increase 3.6 per cent per year to fulfil 14.5 per cent of total energy demand.

New and renewable power sources are forecast to be the region's fourth-biggest energy source by 2030 – supplying 11 per cent of the total. But the report predicts that the sector will enjoy significantly more modest growth than many industry experts are anticipating, with an annual rate of just 1.3 per cent.

According to the report, biomass, which is mostly used in rural off-grid areas, will be the largest source of renewable energy, although its use is expected to decline in coming years due to rural electrification schemes. As a result, other clean energy sources, such as wind, solar and geothermal, will grow at a faster rate, the ADB said.

The use of nuclear energy is forecast to increase by 5.1 per cent annually to account for 7.1 per cent of the region's power supply by 2030, while hydroelectric power will grow three per cent a year to supply two per cent of total demand by the same date.

Regional energy demand is expected to grow by 2.4 per cent annually over the next 20 years, outpacing the world average of 1.5 per cent. It will require an investment of between $7 trillion (£4.2tn) and $9.7tn in the power sector between 2005 and 2030, said the ADB.

However, despite the pessimistic outlook for renewable energy expansion, the report argued that there was a compelling case for increased investment in low-carbon power, predicting that based on current trends, oil imports to Asia-Pacific will "increase substantially" – nearly doubling on 2005 levels by 2030 – imperiling the region's energy security.

ADB vice president Lawrence Greenwood called on countries in the region to seek out low-carbon sources of power to meet their growing energy demand in a socially, economically and environmentally sustainable manner.

"Co-operation among the economies is needed to enhance energy security and sustainable development in the region," Greenwood said. "This can be done through sharing policy information, facilitating energy trade and conducting joint energy projects."