Is the era of ever increasing automation nearing an end?

The next decade could see a roll back of automation in some businesses, as bosses increasingly switch from maximising labour productivity towards improving so-called resource productivity in response to the twin threats of climate change and energy and commodity shortages.

That is one of the conclusions of a new report from think tank Forum for the Future, which today warns that significant changes in the way businesses operate will be required if we are to avoid a scenario where by 2018 most countries are engaged in a protectionist race to horde resources.

The report, which was commissioned by technology consulting firm Capgemini, assesses likely global scenarios for 2018 and argues that based on business as usual projections, there is a significant risk that the era of globalisation and relatively free trade could be coming to an end.

Speaking to BusinessGreen.com, report lead author David Bent said there are indications this increased focus on national interest is already underway.

"This year we've seen food riots, some countries looking to horde resources, and Russia throwing its weight around with regards to energy and the EU," he observed. "China has also been busy building up its Navy and bolstering its presence in Africa and there is a feeling among some analysts that it is looking to develop the capacity to continue to prosper through bilateral deals with African states."

The report argues that businesses will be more successful if this protectionist scenario is not allowed to develop and as such, they should be focusing on an alternative best case scenario where a genuinely global response to resource shortages and climate change present numerous opportunities for those firms that are first to develop low carbon and more resource efficient business models.

Bent advised that for this to be achieved, businesses must first and foremost provide the "political cover" politicians need to force through an international deal on climate change at next year's UN climate change talks in Copenhagen.

However, he also warned that firms will have to assess their own business models and take drastic steps to prepare them for a more carbon and resource constrained world.

"Over the past century the focus has always been on labour productivity, but now there is a real case for looking at resource productivity as well," he said. "That means measuring the amount of value generated per unit of energy, per unit of raw material, even per unit of waste."

This is likely to have wide-reaching implications for many businesses and could also result in a partial reversal of the 200-year trend of ever greater levels of automation.

"When people talk about productivity they are talking about labour productivity and that is what has driven the replacement of people by machines for many processes," argued Bent. "But if you are focusing on resource productivity, the balance could shift a bit towards less automation as firms look to cut energy use or limit consumption of raw materials."

Bent said there were early signs that some firms were beginning to measure resource productivity in the recent focus on measuring and reporting energy use and carbon footprints.

He also argued that while the approach may result in less automation, the interest in more energy and resource efficient processes will create considerable commercial opportunities for those firms that act early to develop more efficient products and services.

"If you can offer a machine or skill that enhances the customers' resource productivity, then that will become increasingly attractive," he predicted. " There will be plenty of opportunities there for those firms that adapt early to these new demands."