Are car makers’ CO2 woes a sign of the future?

It’s amusing to hear highly profitable German car giant BMW complain that proposed European rules on automotive emissions will “distort the market” in favour of smaller cars. It’s a little like an unruly child complaining that being sent to bed without supper will distort the evening in favour of empty stomachs. Promoting less profligate, more efficient cars is the whole point. In the context of reducing carbon footprint, smaller is almost exactly equal to better.

That the European Commission has settled on a proposed limit is a good thing, irrespective of whether it has picked the right number and the right timetable for enforcement, because it will instigate real change in the car industry. To date, with voluntary targets, the makers have been caught in a dilemma. Few of the factors that predominate in car sales today help manufacturers to cut consumption: buyers tend to choose cars that are sporty, high quality, roomy, safe and cheap to buy. Fuel economy has, until very recently, not been much of an issue. Almost all of the above factors tend to bloat up a vehicle in size and weight, while cheapness acts to deter technological routes to reduced consumption.

It’s no surprise, therefore, that some makers (not BMW, to be fair) have seen their average emissions head upward despite a voluntary accord designed to do the opposite. Some makers have, in effect, chosen to take the money and run. They should not be surprised if they now have consequences to face.

It takes a long time to design a product as complex as a car, and makers have already complained about the EC’s timetable. Dieter Zetsche, chief executive of Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler, has been reported as saying the proposed targets are “unattainable” because the new cars that will go on sale in 2012 are already “at the end of their development cycle and can't be substantially changed”. He suggested that Euro politicians have their heads in the clouds.

An alternative view is that Daimler and its ilk have buried their heads in the sand. The 120g/km target has been on the table for 13 years. The notion was first raised, by Germany, in October 1994. In 1995 the European Commission set 120g/km as a target for 2005, but the following year softened its stance and said emissions should reach 120g/km “by 2005, or 2010 at the latest”. In 1998 the Commission agreed to postpone the 120g/km target to 2012, after European makers pledged to hit 140g/km by 2008 (which they will fail to do). So this week’s news should come as a surprise to only the most blinkered product planner.

Producers of goods in other industries should take note, and learn from the car makers’ mistakes. As law makers respond to the public’s emerging desire for greener industry, the window for procrastination may close much more abruptly than it has in the past.