Exclusive: Insiders predict China could beat US to cap-and-trade launch

China could announce the launch of an emissions cap-and-trade scheme as early as the Copenhagen climate talks in December, according to a senior figure in the carbon market currently working closely with the Chinese government.

Speaking at The Carbon Show in London today, Philippe Chauvancy, director at climate exchange BlueNext, said that the announcement last week that it is to develop China's first standard for voluntary emission reduction projects alongside the government-backed China Beijing Environmental Exchange, could lay the foundations for a voluntary cap-and-trade scheme.

He added that Chinese officials were mostly committed to the idea of a national cap-and-trade scheme and could move quickly over the next few months.

"I believe during Copenhagen you'll see the Chinese and the Americans making a statement on cap and trade," he said.

Chauvancy added that he expected the US to have a national cap-and-trade system up and running in the next two years, but that China could yet beat it to the punch. "I really think China might even get there first," he said. "They have the money, the resources and the will to do it."

He argued that the widely held perception that China was not taking action on climate change was entirely outdated, insisting that the government was fully committed to tackling the issue.

Other delegates at the show agreed China was better positioned to roll out a carbon trading scheme quickly.

Patrick Birley, chief executive of the European Climate Exchange, pointed out that anti-regulation lobbyists in Washington could significantly hamper current efforts to push through cap-and-trade legislation. "China has the ability to impose caps pretty quickly," he observed. "Washington politics are almost designed to slow the process and there will be plenty of lobbying against."

But Mark Kenber, policy director at The Climate Group, said that a powerful counter-lobby was building in the US with growing numbers of businesses in favour of tough action to tackle climate change. "I'd be very surprised if China had a mandatory system in place before the US," he said. "If you look at the industries in America, they're really started waking up to the opportunities offered by new markets."