Report: More than three million electric vehicles to be sold by 2015

By 2015 the auto industry will have put 3.2 million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles on the world's roads, according to research released this week.

The study from analyst Pike Research, entitled Plug-in electric vehicles, predicts a 106 per cent compound annual growth rate for the vehicles over the next five years, initially driven by demand in the small consumer vehicle category.

Dave Hurst, senior analyst at the organisation, predicted that small electric cars will act as a forerunner for larger vehicles, arguing that demand for larger electric SUVs will also become established within the next five years.

The report predicted that China will be the largest market for electric vehicles, with more than 888,000 plug-in hybrid and pure electric vehicles (EVs) sold by 2015. Overall, China will account for 27 per cent of worldwide sales, with the US emerging as the second-largest market, taking up 26 per cent of the global market with 841,000 electric vehicles on the roads.

The Association for Electric Vehicles in Europe has less aggressive medium-term predictions for EVs, instead suggesting that a non-linear growth curve will see demand for electric-capable vehicles spiking sharply after 2020.

The short-term prospects for the sector will be significantly affected by government incentives, it has warned.

Another factor that could undermine uptake of electric cars is the availability of supporting infrastructure, according to recent research from an analyst SBI Energy.

"EV sales depend upon the support of charging stations, batteries and smart grid tie-in," the company said in June, adding that EV sales will stagnate unless adequate infrastructure is deployed.

A separate July survey from the Electric Power Research Institute urged governments and electric car suppliers to ensure recharging networks feature fast-charge capabilities.

"Public fast-charging availability (for example, a 10 to 15 minute charge facility) may have a strong influence on PHEV adoption, as two in five hybrid owners and one in three non-hybrid owners say the capability will 'definitely' influence their buying decision," the report said, adding that three quarters of respondents agreed that they would pay a 33 per cent premium over the slower, home-charging rate for a fast charge in a public area.