New York to trailblaze electric cars' journey into the mainstream

Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles are just a few years away from mainstream adoption in some of the world's largest cities, according to a study from McKinsey & Co which predicts they will account for up to 16 per cent of new car sales in New York City by the year 2015.

The report, which surveyed 1,500 motorists in cities around the world, predicted New Yorkers could buy as many as 70,000 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles in 2015. It similarly found that electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles are likely to account for nine per cent of cars sold in Paris in 2015, and five per cent of cars sold in Shanghai.

Perhaps unsurprisingly given development timelines, the report predicted that most cars sold in this category in 2015 would be plug-in hybrids rather than pure battery-electric vehicles.

Plug-in hybrids are hybrid fossil fuel/electric vehicles that plug into a power outlet to give them a short-distance all-electric range before switching to combustion. Several car manufacturers, including GM and Toyota, are preparing to launch plug-in hybrids over the next two years, with the first models expected to emerge before the end of 2010.

Drivers for the uptake of PHEV/EV vehicles include more stringent emission regulations, the report added.

The McKinsey report was released as car firms used this week's North American International Auto show in Detroit to unveil their latest low-carbon models and update their plans for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

GE announced that it plans to follow the launch of its first plug-in hybrid, the Chevvy Volt, later this year, with a Cadillac version of the car which will be released by 2013. Executives said the Converj would sell for about $40,000 (£24,000), and will have a 40-mile range, like the first-generation Volt.

Meanwhile, Volkswagen also showed off a hybrid version of its Compact Coupe that has fuel efficiency of 45 miles per gallon, while Honda unveiled a new concept plug-in hybrid called the Blue Will and Ford announced it would begin building battery-electric vehicles for the North American market from next year.

In addition, Toyota sought to bolster its position as a leader in the development of low carbon vehicles, announcing that it is to set up a new division to accelerate the development of electric vehicle batteries.

The company is planning to use lithium-ion batteries in the plug-in hybrid version of the Prius which it plans to launch next year, but managing officer Koei Saga told reporters that the company had already turned its attention to the next generation of battery development.

"We believe a key to the electrical mobile technology lies in innovation of battery technology," he said. "Lithium-ion batteries will already be a step forward, but we need batteries that offer far superior performance."

Toyota provided no details about the new technology, but confirmed that it now had 50 engineers working for the new division.

The company also announced that it is to put 100 fuel cell-based vehicles on US roads as part of a national test programme. It is hoping to make the fuel cell-based vehicles fully available to the market by 2015.