Clean energy investment to top $7 trillion by 2030

Report warns adoption of clean technologies could prove surprisingly rapid once cost tipping points are reached

Investment in clean energy technologies could exceed $7trillion by 2030 as public policy and private investors continue to underpin a major shift in the global energy mix.

That is the conclusion of a major new report from research firm Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), which argues that clean technologies are fast approaching the energy mainstream.

Daniel Yergin, chairman at CERA, said that the combination of public concerns over climate change and the expectation of increasingly stringent carbon legislation had led to a fundamental strengthening of the business case for clean energy technologies, such as wind turbines, solar panels and biomass generators. "Clean technology [is moving] across the great divide of cost, proven results, scale and maturity that has separated it from markets served by mainstream technologies and processes," he added.

The report warns that clean energy technologies are likely to have a " disruptive rather than incremental impact", meaning that mass adoption of certain technologies could be achieved very rapidly and with serious adverse consequences for conventional energy firms.

For example, once modular and distributed photovoltaic solar panels reach a certain price point they have the potential to seriously disrupt traditional centralised models of energy production and distribution. Similarly, the report predicts that "breakthroughs in cellulosic ethanol can disrupt the traditional vehicle fuel system if scale, logistics, and costs prove manageable".

The report also notes that regional clean tech hubs are already emerging with Brazil gaining a reputation as a leader in biofuels, Germany dominating the PV technology space and Spain fast emerging as a powerful player in the wind energy sector.

It predicts that Asia could also quickly emerge as one of the dominant forces in the clean tech space. "Rapid economic growth may push Asian energy needs from 30 per cent of current global demand to 40 per cent by 2030," the report claims. "Combined with its manufacturing cost-competitiveness, this could make Asia a nexus for clean energy technology research, development and equipment production."

However, the report also counsels a degree of caution to clean tech firms, noting that further technical breakthroughs are still required for many technologies, most notably solar power and biofuels, if they are to reach the mainstream.

It also claims that conventional emission free technologies in the form of nuclear and hydroelectric power will continue to retain more influence than any of the newer clean tech sectors, predicting they "will account for most of the clean energy impact for the next decade, and almost half the gross clean power additions by 2030".