James Murray

I keep feeling like I should post something on this week's "historic" G8 Summit and its agreement on climate change, but I'm trying hard to work out how a commitment to meet to discuss the issue at a later date with a view to considering, maybe a target for a "substantial" reduction in greenhouse gas emissions that might well be voluntary constitutes news.

Of course, I'm being slightly churlish and the fact that all the G8 governments, including the US, now recognise manmade climate change, its seriousness and the need for an international agreement as early as 2009 is a huge step forward that would have been unimaginable even twelve months ago.

But without a clear, definable target on emissions, an agreement for a baseline on when cuts should be measured from, a mechanism for sharing out the cuts between different countries, and information on how the various carbon trading mechanisms will evolve it is a case of as you were for businesses desperate for clearer guidance as they transition towards low carbon business models.

The global business community can now expect another two years of uncertainty and confusion as international discussions continue and an infuriating patchwork of climate change policies are pursued by different countries, and in the case of the US even different states.

It is a nightmare scenario for any form of medium to long term corporate planning and risk assessment, and one that could lead to many firms delaying the development of green business models.

And while businesses can now be more certain than ever that both major legislative changes and carbon trading are on the way there is still the risk that the whole global framework could yet collapse with President Bush insisting that the US will only sign up if China and India are involved.

Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic may well be hopeful that such a wide reaching agreement can be achieved, but you can almost hear the Chinese and Indian governments pointing out that they did not create this problem, that vast swathes of their population still live on less than $2 a day, and that a huge chunk of their emissions come from manufacturing products consumed in the West.

Environmentalists may be getting something of a reputation for getting what they want and then complaining once again that things haven't gone far enough. But on this occasion they appear entirely justified to complain that the G8 glass remains half empty.