Copenhagen on a knife edge as US plays down climate bill expectations

The ongoing Copenhagen negotiations received a dual blow on Friday, as the White House admitted for the first time that it was unlikely to pass a US climate bill this year and the UN's top climate change official expressed disappointment at the pace of the current talks in Bangkok.

Speaking as the Bangkok conference enters its second week, Yvo de Boer, head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat, told reporters that efforts to trim the 180-page draft negotiating text were still moving too slowly.

"Progress toward high industrialised-world emissions cuts remains disappointing during these talks. We're not seeing real advances there," he said. "Movement on the ways and means and institutions to raise, manage and deploy financing support for the developing world's climate action also remains slow."

His comments will further fuel fears that the current deadlock over emission targets shows no sign of breaking, despite the fact there is only one more round of meetings scheduled after Bangkok before the deal is meant to be signed at the Copenhagen Summit in December.

Developing nations are still demanding that richer countries commit to a 40 per cent emissions cut on 1990 levels by 2020, while the UN has recommended that industrialised countries commit to cuts of between 25 and 40 per cent by the same date.

Rich nations, however, have been reluctant to commit to such ambitious targets. Japan has gone furthest, pledging to cut emissions by 25 per cent, while the EU has agreed to cut emissions by 20 per cent and upgrade the target to 30 per cent if other industrialised nations do the same.

Meanwhile, the US is yet to adopt any formal targets and is currently debating its latest climate bill proposal, the Boxer-Kerry bill, which would commit it to a 20 per cent reduction in emissions on 2005 levels by 2020.

De Boer said the failure of the US to pass climate legislation made it difficult for other industrialised nations to make detailed commitments, which in turn means emerging economies remain reluctant to make their own pledges.

"Not knowing what the US is going to be able to bring to Copenhagen makes it very difficult for other countries in that Kyoto discussion to increase the level of ambition of their numbers," he said.

However, the chances of the US finalising its position ahead of Copenhagen are receding fast, after a White House official admitted for the first time that the administration did not expect the Boxer-Kerry bill to pass before Copenhagen.

"Obviously, we'd like to be through the process, but that's not going to happen," Carol Browner, Barack Obama's top energy adviser told a Washington conference on Friday. "The likelihood that you'd have a bill signed by the president on comprehensive energy by the time we go in December is not likely."

Echoing comments made to world leaders by President Obama at last month's G20 meeting, she said that the Copenhagen meeting could mark the beginning of a process to get the treaty finalised.

Talk of continuing the Copenhagen talks into 2010 have angered many negotiators and environmental groups, who have argued that it gives those countries that are reluctant to sign up to a deal the cover they need to further delay the creation of a meaningful international climate change deal.

However, Browner insisted that the White House remained fully committed to passing a robust climate bill and was confident it could get the bill approved early next year. She also hinted that the administration had contingency plans in case the Senate blocks the legislation, predicting that the Environmental Protection Agency could extend voluntary emission trading schemes in order to deliver emission reductions.