Obama prepares for final climate bill push

President Obama is gearing up for a meeting later today that will determine the immediate future of climate change legislation in the US.

During a gathering of key senators at the White House, he will measure sentiment and gauge the chances of pushing a climate change bill through the Senate before the mid-term elections in November.

The draft climate change bill proposed by Senators Kerry and Lieberman needs 60 votes to move through the Senate and get to the president's desk. But the concept of regulating carbon emissions – whether through a cap and trade initiative, or via existing legislation – remains a contentious issue on Capitol Hill, with Republicans and some Democrats insisting they will not vote for the bill in its current form.

President Obama has said he will get the votes necessary to pass some form of climate legislation this year and has seized upon the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico as evidence of the urgent need to move the US towards a low carbon economy.

He also this week urged supporters to begin campaigning in favour of climate legislation.

"In the coming days, I'll work with both parties to find the necessary votes to move comprehensive energy and climate legislation forward," said Obama in an address to 13 million supporters of the Democratic National Committee, at the Organizing for America web site. "But we also know that real change is only possible when ordinary Americans are willing to organise from the bottom up. If we refuse to heed the warnings of this disaster, then we will have missed our best chance to help build the clean energy future America needs. But if we seize this moment, we can rebuild our economy on a new foundation."

However, the clock is ticking if the administration wants to pass the bill before the mid term elections and Obama has less than 30 days left on the Senate schedule to run climate change legislation through the Congressional gauntlet.

Commentators reckon that with polls suggesting the Democrats could lose control of Congress at the upcoming election, the next month could represent the last chance for the administration to pass legislation.

The meeting is expected to focus on the extent to which the administration should compromise its proposed legislation in order to secure the 60 votes required to pass the bill.

One option on the table is to reign in the cap-and-trade proposals central to the Kerry-Lieberman bill. Senator Joe Lieberman has signalled that he would support such a compromise, which would effectively exclude heavy industry from the carbon pricing scheme. Such a move could help to win votes from wavering Democrats from industrial states who have warned that the carbon pricing element of the bill could damage the economy.

Alternatively, the White House could endorse a number of alternative bills, one from Democrat Senator Jeff Bingaman and another from Republican Senator Richard Lugar, which propose ditching cap-and-trade proposals altogether in favour of increased support for renewable and nuclear energy.

Senator Lieberman said there are roughly 20 senators undecided on whether to vote for climate change legislation. He estimates that half of those votes are needed to swing some kind of climate change legislation through the Senate during this session.

President Obama still has a number of cards up his sleeve as he attempts to win over swing voters. Most notably, Democrats recently defeated a Republican attempt to strip the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of its right to regulate carbon emissions. The White House has long said it regards the EPA as a "plan B" for addressing carbon emissions and has warned it would step up efforts to regulate greenhouse gas emissions unless the Senate passes some form of workable climate legislation.