Chief scientist warns of "perfect storm" for resource shortages by 2030

The UK's chief scientist will today warn that political and business leaders have just 20 years to prepare for a "perfect storm" of climate change-related impacts on food, water and energy supplies or risk public unrest, conflict and mass migration.

In a major speech to the Sustainable Development UK 09 conference, Professor John Beddington will warn that the combination of climate change, a growing global population and changing dietary habits will result in a surge in demand for food, water and energy by 2030 that will drive up prices and could lead to widespread shortages.

According to Beddington, demand for food and energy will increase 50 per cent by 2030, while demand for fresh water will rise 30 per cent as the population grows to top 8.3 billion.

At the same time, climate change is expected to result in falling levels of agricultural productivity and water shortages across many hot regions, leading to mass migration and increased risks of cross-border conflict.

"There will not to be a complete collapse, but things will start getting really worrying if we don't tackle these problems," Beddinton will warn. "My main concern is what will happen internationally. There will be food and water shortages."

He added that while the UK would remain "relatively fortunate", even countries not directly affected by food and energy shortages would see global prices rise.

Beddington said that while food and energy prices had fallen in recent months as a result of the recession, political and business leaders could "not afford to be complacent", arguing that once demand recovers, prices could again soar to record levels.

He called for increased investment in renewable energy technologies, water infrastructure and improving agricultural productivity, including through genetically modified crops to help guard against future shortages.

Beddington's warning comes in the same week as a new report from the UN warned almost half the global population would be living in areas of high water stress by 2030, and follows grave warnings from climate scientists gathering in Copenhagen last week that the threat posed by climate change this century is more severe than initially thought.

Speaking at the Copenhagen conference last week, Professor David Stainforth of Exeter University said that predicting the impact of global warming over the next two decades was made difficult by decadal variations in climate. But he said that research was now being undertaken to model the impact of climate change in the medium term and assess the extent to which rising temperatures are affecting natural variability.