Report warns government will "struggle" to meet renewables targets

The UK is likely to miss EU renewable energy targets for 2020, but can still meet its target to cut carbon emissions 80 per cent by 2050, if it increases investment in energy efficiency, decarbonises the entire electricity sector, delivers a significantly higher price of carbon, and promotes sustainable lifestyle changes.

Those are just some of the findings of a major new study from the UK Energy Research Centre, which argues that the target of cutting carbon emissions by 80 per cent "is achievable and that the aggregate costs are small in relation to GDP".

However, it also warns that meeting the target will require changes to the UK energy sector that are "beyond the bounds of historical experience" and significantly more ambitious than current government plans.

The UKERC report presents a number scenarios detailing how the 2050 targets can be met, and concludes that under all scenarios the UK electricity sector will have to be decarbonised by 2050, tougher energy efficiency measures are likely to be required to make the task of decarbonisation easier, and developers of low carbon technologies will need a signal that carbon prices will be at least £200 a tonne by 2050.

None of the scenarios predict that the roll out of renewable energy technologies will be fast enough for the UK to meet its EU target of generating 15 per cent of its energy from renewables by 2020.

Speaking at the launch of the report, Jim Skea, research director of UKERC and a member of the government's advisory Committee on Climate Change, said that the government faced a "a very big struggle" to meet the target. He added that high profile delays to renewable energy projects and bottlenecks in the planning system meant the 2020 target would be "very hard" to reach and as a result the UKERC scenarios had not anticipated a major role for renewables until the 2030s.

The report recommends that "changes to regulatory arrangements are needed to ensure a more strategic approach to grid connection which obviates delays and does not allow the securing of planning permission to become an obstacle".

It also calls for a greater focus on energy efficiency, arguing that while " a resilient energy system needs a range of measures… reducing energy demand is key".

Controversially, the report argues that lifestyle changes, such as reducing temperatures within buildings, banning cars in city centres, and limiting personal travel, could dramatically reduce the cost of meeting CO2 targets.

The study's conclusion echoes that of the Stern Review, arguing that "early action and a readiness to invest in infrastructure and more capital intensive solutions could lead to lower costs in the long term".